Withholding is a family of separate regimes, not one rate. Treating it as a single rule is the source of most confusion about it, so it is worth naming the main ones.
Wages. Section 3402 requires an employer to withhold income tax from wages, and Form W-4 is the instruction that sets how much. The form was redesigned for 2020 and no longer uses withholding allowances; it asks directly about filing status, dependents, other income, deductions and any extra amount you want taken. Separately from income tax, Social Security and Medicare tax come out of wages under the Federal Insurance Contributions Act, and the W-4 has no effect on those.
Bonuses, commissions and equity that vests. These are supplemental wages, and the regulations allow an employer to withhold on them at a flat rate determined without reference to the employee's regular wages or their Form W-4. That is a convenience for payroll and a systematic problem for a high earner, because the flat rate can sit well below their actual marginal rate. It is the reason a large bonus or a restricted stock unit vest so often produces an April balance due.
Retirement distributions. Section 3405 governs these and it draws a line that costs people real money. A distribution from an IRA is subject to withholding at a default rate of 10%, and the account owner can elect out of it entirely. An eligible rollover distribution paid from an employer plan such as a 401(k) carries a mandatory 20% withholding that cannot be waived, which is why taking the check yourself and then depositing it into an IRA leaves you 20% short and needing to replace that amount from other money within the rollover window. A direct transfer between institutions avoids the problem because nothing is paid to you.
Unemployment compensation and Social Security benefits. Neither is withheld by default. Both are handled by Form W-4V, "Voluntary Withholding Request," which is given to the payer rather than to the IRS: unemployment compensation can be withheld at 10%, and Social Security benefits at a choice of 7%, 10%, 12% or 22%. Retirees who assume tax is being taken out of a benefit that is partly taxable are a common source of surprise balances due.
Backup withholding. Section 3406 applies to certain reportable payments, chiefly interest, dividends and payments to independent contractors, when the recipient has failed to supply a correct taxpayer identification number or the IRS has notified the payer of a problem. The rate is not written as a number: the statute sets it at "the fourth lowest rate of tax applicable under section 1(c)," so it moves only if Congress rewrites the individual rate schedule.
Why withholding can fix a problem an estimated payment cannot. Section 6654(g)(1) treats the credit for withheld tax as an estimated tax payment with "an equal part of such amount" deemed paid on each of the four due dates, unless you establish the actual dates. Withholding therefore reaches backward across the whole year, while an estimated payment lands on the day it is made. A shortfall discovered in November is usually best repaired by increasing withholding on the remaining paychecks or on a year-end bonus, not by writing a larger check with the January installment.
The excess-withholding rule that is narrower than it looks. If too much income tax is withheld, the return refunds it, and that is straightforward. Excess Social Security tax is different. Sections 6413(c)(1) and 31(b) provide a credit on the return only where the over-withholding arose because wages came from more than one employer and together exceeded the annual wage ceiling. A single employer that over-withholds has to correct it through payroll; there is no return-level remedy in that case. Describing it as a general excess-withholding credit tells someone in the second situation to expect something on the return that will not be there.