Marital status is the gate, and it is decided by statute. Section 7703(a) provides that whether an individual is married is determined as of the close of the taxable year, so a wedding on December 30 makes you married for the whole year and a divorce finalised on December 30 makes you unmarried for the whole year. There is one exception written into the same sentence: if a spouse dies during the year, marital status is determined as of the time of death, which is why Publication 501 says a surviving spouse is "considered married for the whole year for filing status purposes." Whether a marriage exists at all is a question of state law. The publication recognises a marriage entered into in any state, possession or territory regardless of where the couple now lives, and recognises foreign and tribal marriages that would be recognised as marriage by at least one state. It also draws a line that surprises people: individuals in a registered domestic partnership, a civil union, or a similar relationship not denominated a marriage are not lawfully married for federal tax purposes.
Two separate tests use the word "unmarried", and confusing them sends a reader down the wrong branch. Section 7703(a)(2) treats an individual legally separated under a decree of divorce or separate maintenance as unmarried. Section 7703(b) is a different rule, with three statutory conditions. A married person who files a separate return and maintains a home that was for more than half the year the main home of a child they could claim as a dependent, who furnishes over half the cost of that home, and whose spouse was not a member of the household during the last six months of the year, is not considered married. That second test is the one that matters in practice, because it is how a separated parent who is still legally married reaches head of household rather than married filing separately. A page that names only the first test tells exactly the wrong thing to the reader most affected by the second.
Only after that do the branches open. A person who counts as married has two options, a joint return or a separate return, and cannot file as single. A person who counts as unmarried files as single unless a household test lifts them into head of household or, in the two years after a spouse's death, into qualifying surviving spouse. The two household statuses are not interchangeable and their tests are not parallel. Qualifying surviving spouse requires a dependent son, stepson, daughter or stepdaughter specifically. Head of household reaches further, including a grandchild and, uniquely, a dependent parent who does not have to live with the taxpayer at all. So the same household can support one status and not the other.
What the box actually changes. Three things move together with status: the rate schedule applied to taxable income, the standard deduction, and a long list of income thresholds at which deductions and credits phase out. A fourth effect is easy to miss because it is categorical rather than numerical. Some benefits are switched off by status outright rather than reduced, no matter what the income is. Section 25A(g)(6) allows the education credits only if a married taxpayer files jointly, and section 221(e)(2) says the same of the student loan interest deduction. A high earner and a low earner filing separately lose both equally.
Status is redetermined every year, and one switch is largely one-way. A marriage, a divorce, a death, a child moving in, or a child ageing out can all change the answer without anything else changing. Spouses who filed separate returns may generally amend to a joint return within three years of the original due date, not counting extensions. Going the other way, from a joint return to separate returns, closes at the filing deadline and cannot be undone afterwards, so the separate-versus-joint decision is the one worth getting right the first time.